050 The SpaceX IPO Blasts Off (We break down the hype and hard reality)

We break down the latest in tech, AI, and startups live every Thursday at 11:00 AM Pacific and 2:00 PM Eastern on X, LinkedIn, and YouTube.

E050 Topics:
1. The SpaceX IPO is tomorrow!
(We were supposed to also talk about)
2. The biggest IPO run in the history of the market
3. Claude Fable/Mythos is out
4. Escorts who charge $5k an hour to talk nerdy
5. Apple is supposedly fixing Siri
6. NVIDIA is worth more than India (American math)
7. Token maxxing is over part 2
8. Vibe Your SaaS: Startup Pitch Competition + VC/Founder Mixer @ Snowflake

This week Gregory and Paul dedicate most of the show to the biggest tech IPO event in years: the SpaceX IPO. They debate whether retail investor enthusiasm has reached dangerous levels, compare SpaceX to Facebook's famous IPO, and discuss whether buying on day one is investing or gambling.

The conversation expands into OpenAI's upcoming IPO challenges, Anthropic's positioning, why Stripe may never go public, and whether Elon Musk has built the most dominant technology business of the next decade. Along the way they discuss Apple's AI struggles, Sam Altman's strategic mistakes, and why some of the best companies in the world may prefer staying private forever.

Connect with Gregory & Paul

Gregory Kennedy
Website – https://www.vibeyoursaas.com
LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregorykennedy/
X (Twitter) – https://twitter.com/gregorykennedy

Paul
Website – https://karmic.buzz
LinkedIn – https://www.linkedin.com/in/pxue/
X (Twitter) – https://twitter.com/pxue

1. SpaceX IPO Fever Has Arrived
01:40 to 03:15
The hosts react to reports of retail investors borrowing money and committing life savings to buy SpaceX shares. Gregory and Paul discuss whether this level of enthusiasm represents healthy excitement or classic bubble behavior.

2. The Facebook IPO Comparison
03:15 to 06:20
Gregory shares a firsthand story from the Facebook IPO and explains why one of the most successful IPOs in history was actually viewed as a disappointment on day one. The discussion explores what an IPO is supposed to accomplish and whether a massive first day pop is actually a sign of poor pricing.

3. Predicting SpaceX's First Trading Day
06:20 to 12:50
With only a small percentage of shares entering the public market, the hosts debate supply, demand, retail participation, index inclusion, and whether the stock could double on its first day. They compare their predictions to current market expectations and betting markets.

4. Why Oversubscription Numbers May Be Meaningless
13:00 to 14:55
Jim Cramer reports that SpaceX is four times oversubscribed. Gregory and Paul explain why IPO demand statistics can be misleading and how investor behavior often creates self fulfilling narratives around popular offerings.

5. Why Stripe Still Refuses to Go Public
15:00 to 19:55
The hosts explore one of Silicon Valley's biggest mysteries: why Stripe continues to avoid the public markets. They discuss profitability, transparency, shareholder buybacks, payment infrastructure economics, and whether public disclosure could create problems for an otherwise perfect business.

6. Should You Actually Buy an IPO?
20:00 to 25:20
Gregory reviews IPO performance data and highlights a surprising observation. While many IPOs struggle initially, some of the biggest technology winners in history generated enormous returns for investors who simply held them long term. Amazon, Meta, Salesforce, and Palantir become key examples in the discussion.

7. The Best Time to Buy Might Be 6 to 12 Months Later
25:20 to 31:20
The conversation turns to post IPO trading patterns. The hosts discuss lockups, employee selling pressure, Figma's struggles as a public company, and whether waiting six to twelve months after an IPO often creates better entry opportunities.

8. Why SpaceX Is Different From Most Tech Companies
29:00 to 34:45
Gregory argues that SpaceX's competitive position is fundamentally different from companies like Dropbox or Figma. The discussion covers Starlink's dominance, satellite infrastructure, launch capacity, international competition, and the long term opportunity around space based AI infrastructure.

9. OpenAI, Anthropic, and the IPO Wave
35:20 to 37:30
With SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI all moving toward public markets, the hosts discuss the implications of multiple trillion dollar AI companies arriving simultaneously. They also examine concerns about OpenAI's valuation and reports that investors may be becoming more cautious.

10. OpenAI's Consumer Strategy Problem
37:30 to 39:15
Paul argues that OpenAI should focus on winning consumer AI adoption rather than fighting Google and Anthropic in every market segment. The hosts debate subscription pricing, consumer assistants, and whether OpenAI has already lost key strategic partnerships.